Cyber risk quantification estimating probabilities

For those who attempt to quantify cyber risk, how do you estimate the likelihood of an event occurring? One that I am considering is to use the beta distribution, as suggested in Hubbard's book. The alpha parameter represents the event that has occurred, and the beta parameter represents the number of events that did not occur.



When it comes to assessing the risk of an insider threat, there are two approaches we have considered. The first is to look at …

beta book cyber cyber risk cyber risk quantification cybersecurity distribution event events parameter quantification risk risk quantification