Will AI Make Cyber Swords or Shields: A few mathematical models of technological progress. (arXiv:2207.13825v1 [cs.CR])

We aim to demonstrate the value of mathematical models for policy debates
about technological progress in cybersecurity by considering phishing,
vulnerability discovery, and the dynamics between patching and exploitation. We
then adjust the inputs to those mathematical models to match some possible
advances in their underlying technology. We find that AI's impact on phishing
may be overestimated but could lead to more attacks going undetected. Advances
in vulnerability discovery have the potential to help attackers more than
defenders. And automation …

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